ENSO Diversity in a Tropical Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO, El Niño, and Dynamic Walker Circulation

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity has a significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. However, it is still challenging problem for present-day models to simulate different types of ENSO events with realistic features simultaneously. In this paper, tropical stochastic skeleton model the interactions among wind bursts Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), Niño, Walker circulation developed reproduce both dynamical statistical diversity. model, intraseasonal component state-dependent noise captures general MJO, which play important roles in triggering Niño. The thermocline feedback dominant mechanism generating eastern Pacific (EP) while nonlinear zonal advection incorporated into that contributes central (CP) Besides, simple but effective process describing multidecadal variation background modulates spatial patterns occurrence frequency EP CP This succeeds simulating quasi-regular moderate super Niño as well La Niña It also observed non-Gaussian characteristics sea surface temperature anomalies regions. Individual case studies highlight outstanding skill reproducing episodes their underlying mechanisms.